The cost of fuel is impacted by many factors making predictions difficult. However, there are particular factors which are in play today, allowing us to extrapolate and extend those trend lines in to the next calendar-year and interpret possible outcomes.
“With demand still significantly below historic averages and continued supply to transport right through to 2021, prices continues to stay reasonably flat throughout the remainder of 2020 and into 2021,” stated Emily Candib, director – fleet products for Merchants Fleet. “Traditional demand likely to pick up in May-June and raise prices along side force on refineries to keep rate.”
The cost of gas is very much influenced by supply-and-demand characteristics, which are forecast to improve in CY-2021.
“We anticipate you will see a gradual increase in fuel price in 2021 as demand increases and production supplies are paid off towards new normal demands,” stated Justin Dudeck, item manager, analytics, consulting and transformation for LeasePlan USA.
However, entire sections associated with macro-economy continue to be hobbled, in particular the aviation and car leasing companies, this reduced consumption will put downward force on crude oil rates.
“We anticipate oil areas to remain volatile considering slow economic recovery. We have been still seeing constraints in travel from consumers and many companies are maintaining employees remote. It has generated a reduced demand in gas and certainly will carry on in the event that pandemic worsens this cold temperatures,” stated Lindsay Wood, item manager for Wheels.
Another reason it is difficult to forecast fuel expenses is basically because rates dynamics are often dictated at a bigger geopolitical level.
“Geopolitical tensions are low; but that may alter quickly and adversely impact fuel supply and demand,” stated Mark Atchley, senior supply chain supervisor for Enterprise Fleet Management. “The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting nations (OPEC) will more than likely continue tries to sharply increase fuel prices through manufacturing cuts. But we expect fuel expenses to continue experiencing modest growth in 2021 and stay below 2018 and 2019 amounts.”