The price tag on gas is influenced by numerous variables making predictions difficult. But there are particular factors which can be in play today, which allows us to extrapolate and extend those trend lines in to the next calendar-year and interpret feasible outcomes.
“With need still dramatically lower than historical averages and continued supply to transport to 2021, prices will continue to remain reasonably flat through the sleep of 2020 and into 2021,” said Emily Candib, director – fleet items for Merchants Fleet. “Traditional need likely to get in May-June and raise costs along side pressure on refineries to help keep pace.”
The cost of gas is certainly much impacted by supply-and-demand characteristics, that are forecast to improve in CY-2021.
“We anticipate you will have a gradual increase in fuel expense in 2021 as need increases and production materials are reduced toward brand new normal needs,” said Justin Dudeck, product director, analytics, consulting and change for LeasePlan United States Of America.
However, whole segments of this macro-economy remain hobbled, in particular the aviation and vehicle leasing industries, this paid down consumption will place downward force on crude oil rates.
“We expect oil markets to stay volatile as a result of slow economic data recovery. We’re still seeing constraints in travel from consumers and lots of businesses are maintaining workers remote. It’s led to a decreased need in gas and certainly will continue in the event that pandemic worsens this cold temperatures,” stated Lindsay Wood, item supervisor for Wheels.
Another good reason why it is difficult to forecast fuel expenses is because pricing characteristics in many cases are dictated at a much bigger geopolitical level.
“Geopolitical tensions are low; but which could alter quickly and negatively effect fuel supply and need,” said Mark Atchley, senior supply chain manager for Enterprise Fleet Management. “The Organization for the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will more than likely carry on tries to sharply increase fuel expenses through manufacturing cuts. However, we anticipate fuel costs to carry on experiencing modest development in 2021 and stay below 2018 and 2019 levels.”