The buying price of fuel is impacted by many factors making predictions difficult. But there are certain factors which can be in play today, makes it possible for us to extrapolate and extend those trend lines in to the next calendar-year and interpret possible results.
“With demand nevertheless somewhat less than historic averages and continued supply to hold through to 2021, costs continues to stay relatively flat throughout the remainder of 2020 and into 2021,” stated Emily Candib, manager – fleet services and products for Merchants Fleet. “Traditional need expected to pick up in May-June and raise costs along with pressure on refineries to keep rate.”
The price tag on fuel is very much indeed influenced by supply-and-demand dynamics, which are forecast to enhance in CY-2021.
“We anticipate there will be a gradual rise in fuel cost in 2021 as demand increases and manufacturing materials are paid off to your new normal demands,” stated Justin Dudeck, product manager, analytics, consulting and transformation for LeasePlan USA.
However, whole segments of the macro-economy continue being hobbled, specifically the aviation and vehicle rental industries, this reduced consumption will put downward pressure on crude oil rates.
“We anticipate oil markets to stay volatile considering slow economic recovery. We have been still seeing constraints in travel from consumers and several companies are keeping workers remote. It has generated a decreased need in fuel and will carry on in the event that pandemic worsens this winter,” stated Lindsay Wood, item manager for Wheels.
Another reason why it is hard to forecast fuel expenses is because prices characteristics are often dictated at a bigger geopolitical level.
“Geopolitical tensions are currently low; but that may change quickly and adversely effect fuel supply and need,” stated Mark Atchley, senior supply string supervisor for Enterprise Fleet Management. “The Organization associated with the Petroleum Exporting nations (OPEC) will more than likely carry on attempts to sharply increase fuel prices through production cuts. But we anticipate fuel expenses to keep experiencing modest development in 2021 and stay below 2018 and 2019 levels.”